This Week in Tech 502 (Transcript)
Leo Laporte: It's time for TWIT: This Week in Tech! Harry McCracken is here. So is Jason Hiner, Ed Bott, and I'm glad
because these Windows experts are going to explain what the heck is Microsoft
up to with Windows 10! It's coming up next, on TWiT.
NETCASTS YOU LOVE FROM PEOPLE YOU TRUST, THIS IS TWiT! Bandwidth for This Week in tech is provided by Cachefly at cachefly.com.
Leo: It's time for TWiT's annual
audience survey, and we want to hear from you. Please visit twit.tv/survey, and
let us know what you think. It only takes a few minutes, and your anonymous
feedback will help us make TWiT even better. We think
you so much for your continued support. twit.tv/urvey.
This is TWiT, This Week in
Tech, episode 502, recorded Sunday, March 22 2015.
Call
of Booty
This week in Tech is brought to you by Citrix
GoToMeeting: The powerfully simple way to meet with coworkers and clients from
the convenience of your computer, Smartphone, or tablet. Share the same screen
and see each other face to face with HD video conferencing. For a 30-day free
trial, visit gotomeeting.com today.
And by Harry's: for guys who want a great shave
experience for a fraction of what you're paying now, go to harrys.com and get
$5 off your first purchase by entering the code TWIT5 when you check out.
And by Personal Capital. With Personal Capital you'll get award winning
financial tools, unbiased advice, and transparent view of all your investments.
Best of all, it's free. To sign up, go to personalcapital.com/twit.
And by Carbonite. For the hands-on business owner, Carbonite makes data
backup hands free. Carbonite's automatic Cloud backup provides you with round
the clock protection at work and at home. Visit carbonite.com and use the offer
code TWIT for 2 free bonus months with purchase.
It's time for TWIT: This Week in Tech, the show where
we cover the latest week's tech news. We have a massively fine panel. I am
surrounded by former and present Ziff Davisers. No. You're
IDG. It's Technologizer's here. Harry McCracken, he's
now at fastcompany.com. Great to see you. You've been instagramming a lot of retro technology. It's been fun.
Harry McCracken: This place is great, because every time I come I take
a picture.
Leo: Leo's old crap. It's always good for a laugh. Also,
Jason Hiner from Tech Republic, he's a Ziff Daviser. CBS interactive.
Jason Hiner: Yes, indeed.
Leo: I guess we don't call it Ziff Davis any more.
Jason: Most people don't remember. They're like, "What
does the ZD stand for?" I explain this a lot.
Leo: Interesting. Great to have you,
Jason. We'll talk about your new book. It's very exciting and the new
chapter. Is it out yet?
Jason: It is out. It went live on Friday.
Leo: Perfect timing. It's Gina Trapani. That's exciting. Also, too my left, my old friend Ed Bott. Formerly of PC world, but still of ZD net.
Ed Bott: I've actually got
the trifecta here. ZD Net, Ziff Davis, and IDG way back. I can't hold a job, I
guess.
Leo: I wrote for Info world, and Byte, and Ziff Davis, so I
think I'm in the same boat. I was never an editor, like you. I was always a
lowly minion.
Harry: You worked for Byte?
Leo: One of my first reviews was a Macintosh review in the
Mac issue of The Byte magazine, 1984. I'm an old fart.
Jason: Isn't it great that we can always remember our first
articles?
Leo: You never forget that, do you? I wonder what prompted
you guys to get into the tech world. I got into it because I wanted to support
my habit.
Harry: Me too.
Ed: Absolutely.
Leo: For the same reason.
Harry: My first piece was for Creative Computing, by the way.
1982, I think.
Leo: Creative Computing? Great magazine. Love Creative computing.
Harry: Which was Ziff Davis, at the time. I take it back. I wrote for Ziff Davis.
Leo: That was primarily an Apple II journal, right? But
they did everything.
Harry: It was a little bit of everything.
Leo: Atari, too. I was an Atari guy. Jason, what was your
first piece?
Jason: It was a piece on this little piece of software
called, 'Dave' that you put on your Mac so that it could look like a Windows
machine on a Windows network.
Leo: I remember Dave. Wow.
Jason: Yeah. I wrote a "how to." It was kind of
about that piece of software. It was a little bit of a how to and it was about
how to install it and get it to work and that kind of stuff.
Leo: You never forget your first piece. Ed, you're the
senior guy here. You've been doing this longer than anybody. What year did you
start?
Ed: In the PC trade, I started in 87, I think. Before
that, I was writing about semi-conductor technology. Manufacturing technology
and editing magazines for people who work in those clean rooms. I wrote
articles about that. Thank God whatever my first one was is lost to the ages
and brain cells.
Leo: I don't know that. We don't know who wins. We don't
know who wins here. Actually, it's appropriate. This month, Gnu turns 30 and
the Gnu manifesto, first published in Doctor Dobbs journal. March, what would
that be? 30 years ago. 1985. Actually, I'll tell you how far we've come. The
New Yorker magazine has a profile of Richard Stallman.
Harry: That would not have happened 30 years ago.
Leo: I'm surprised it happened today. Stallman,
of course the creator of the GNU project. He was one of the original MIT
hackers, Steven Levy wrote about him in Hackers, and is still around. I'm
trying to decide if I should get him on Triangulation or not.
Ed: He's such a nice person. Really down
to Earth, not demanding in any way.
Leo: He has a ten thousand-word writer for his appearances.
I know, because we had him on Tech TV. By the way, he actually is a genuine
caring person, but he's a little prickly. I know you were being sarcastic. You
know when he plays the recorder and sings the free software song; he's a sweet
guy.
Harry: He's made the world a far better place.
Leo: He ha, contributed hugely to it.
Harry: I have some issues with anybody who says someone
else's choice of technology makes them a prisoner, and that the real way not to
be a prisoner is to use the same products that you want to use.
Leo: That's his philosophy.
Harry: I do bristle a little bit at his notion that anybody
who is using software that doesn't meet his standards is a prisoner. Having
said that, he's made my life better; he's made the life better of virtually
anybody who uses software.
Leo: Linnux wouldn't exist
without the GNU projects. Without stuff on top of the Kernal,
you've got nothing. Almost everything in most modern Linux is based on GNU. It's
kind of funny, because I just got my "Learning GNU" Emacs book. This was Richard Stallman's first well-known
program was Emacs. To this day, still widely used by
hardcore geeks everywhere. But Linux, which means if you use Android, you owe a
great debt of gratitude to Richard Stallman.
Jason: Apache, which runs most of the web. What else? My SQL. Open Source.
Leo: Yeah, if you start talking Open Source, then yes. Absolutely.
Ed: At that point, as soon as you mention Open Source, Mr.
Stallman goes off.
Jason: There's a departure there.
Leo: He founded the free software foundation and created
the GNU license. GPL, new public license, which is in its 3rd
or 4th generation. I remember interviewing Ian Moglin about this, the lawyer who was behind it. Some call it a virus, because it
requires if you use GNU free software that you license it the same way it was
licensed. So you have to give it away and you have to offer a source. I don't
know. I have a huge admiration for Richard, but I don't know if I want to spend
a lot of time getting him on the air. The Writers is both interesting and
unusual.
Harry: Is the Tricaster free
software?
Leo: No. We probably can't use the Tricaster.
He prefaces every e-mail he sends with these words, and I think we should all
do the same. To any NSA and FBI agents reading my e-mail, please consider
whether defending the US constitution against all enemies, foreign or domestic
requires you to follow Snowden's example. Not sure what that means. I get the jist of it. I'm considering right now. His 10,000-word
writer, according to the New Yorker makes charmingly odd reading. He loves good
food, folk dancing, and beautiful landscapes. He hates avocados, dislikes
hotels, and is indifferent to wine. Also, don't buy him a parrot.
Ed: Who hates avocados?
Leo: Really. I remember. In order to get him on Tech TV,
because we did interview him on Tech TV, and I did get him to play the recorder
and sing the free software song, which was a highlight of my career. He said,
"The day I appear on Tech TV, no show can refer to Linux. It has to always
be GNU Linux." That's one of his serious—
Harry: He's real fussy about the exact wordings of things in
a way that I don't think helps his cause.
Leo: Yeah. Anyway, amazing guy. I
noticed this New Yorker article refers to GNU Linux throughout. I have a
feeling that they cite the writer. Only Richard Stallman would say, "OK
New Yorker. You can do a profile of me, but you've got to call it GNU Linux. This
is a man who is pure of heart. Pure of purpose. 30
years ago this month, GNU Manifesto was published. I thought we'd mention that
as we began the show. Let's see. I've been out of town for a couple of days. Did
anything happen this week? Anything important? Windows
10 is coming out this summer. Although, as Paul Thurott pointed out, summer could be any time between June 20 and September 20. They
had originally said Windows 10 would be this fall, but it still could be late
2015.
Harry: Do they ever actually say fall? Do we assume fall?
Leo: I think they said fall.
Jason: I think the most important thing about it was actually
the story that Ed did about how Microsoft is going to make it available for
free even outside of China.
Leo: Yeah. They're going to basically say, "Even if
you have a pirated version of Windows, we'll allow you to upgrade to Windows 10
for free." Any version. Actually, that really
does make it any version. If you're running Windows 95, just steal a copy of
Windows 7 and you can upgrade. This is, Ed you've been covering Bill Gates and
Microsoft for a while. This is a dramatic shift from the Bill Gates Microsoft.
Ed: It really is. Basically, what they're trying to do
here is get out of the paid upgrade business, except among Enterprise
customers, they want this to be your last Windows upgrade ever, and once that
happens, you're on a continuous servicing model. It'll be free. You'll buy
Windows, and it'll be included in the price of a new device that you get. Any
upgrades, new features, and everything, those will just appear through Windows
update. No more paying for upgrades.
Leo: I assumed more that it was to reassure developers,
look. We're going to catch everybody up. We're going to make sure that
the—right now, the majority of Windows users still use
XP. Isn't it still more than—XP is a significant percentage. So what Microsoft
would love to tell Developers is say, "Look. Everybody
is going to use Windows 10." It's good for developers because there is a
unified development system, so you can write for any Windows 10 device. It
works on Windows phone, it works on Xbox One, it works on Desktops, it works on Tablets. Is this not a message to developers? Jason: It's part of it, but this is also a platform play. They want that platform. They
want the Windows platform to remain the largest computing platform in the
world. Android is creeping up, and you have Chrome Book, the thing is, they
want Windows as a platform to remain relevant. It's bit, it's significant that they are giving up this honey pot of software
upgrades. That's what's made Microsoft Microsoft. They
extracted all that value out of the PC eco system, turned all the PC makers
into low margin providers of hardware, and they extracted all the value out of
that ecosystem by making people pay for Windows. The providers pay for Windows,
and users pay for Windows upgrades. That ship has kind of left the port, like
Ed was saying, they're giving up on that model. Enterprises
will still pay for upgrades because they'll pay for software insurance.
Leo: I think that's got to be the bulk of the revenue.
Jason: That's where a lot of the money is. For Consumers and
for small businesses too, they will no longer have to pay for Windows to have
the platform, but the trade off that Microsoft is
making there is by having that platform be ubiquitous, they can make money off
of a software store, the same way Apple does, by selling you software through a
store. Selling, also media. Movies, TV shows, and books. Those
kinds of things. They can make their cut off that. In order to do that,
you have to have a bit platform. The bigger your platform, the more widespread
it is. The more money you can make off of all of that stuff. That's the
trade-off for something like this. The thing is, can
you trade that platform? The platform has to get bigger and bigger and more
wide-spread to make up for all the pennies that you make on those transactions,
you have to make up for a lot of software licenses that you're no longer
selling, but that's my interpretation of where they're going with this.
Leo: It's telling they did this in China, too. They did
this at Wynn Hick.
Ed: There's something to back up there too. Something you
said, Leo, that I want to amplify a little bit. You
said, doesn't XP still have a lot of usage? If you include China, it does. There
are hundreds—
Leo: They never paid for it, but they're using it.
Ed: Right. There are hundreds of millions. There's all sorts of squishy, not very accurate statistics
floating around about which platforms and which operating systems are being
used, but when you get big numbers for Windows XP, in general, that is counting
the pirate population in China. There are also a lot of enterprises in the
Western developed world. For the most part, those companies are paying hefty support
contracts for the right to continue running a no longer supported operating
system. XP is shrinking very quickly. Windows 7 right now, the whole thing with
Windows 10 is to prevent Windows 7 from turning into the Windows XP.
Leo: Nobody every operates.
Ed: That's what that's all about.
Leo: So XP has more market share than Windows 8 and 8.1
together. There's a lot of different measurements. This
is from Net Market share, this is probably close to
the actual percentage. 56% Windows 7. 19% XP, 10 % 8.1. Only 3.558, which shows the tests
Microsoft did of getting people to move from 8 to 8.1 was a success. They
sensed there they could do better. By the way, Mac is next at 3.55 percent. Way
behind there. Windows Vista: 2.11 percent. Linux, 1.5
percent. So by giving away Windows 10 and not caring whether you're
upgrading a pirated copy.
Harry: They do care. They're grudgingly saying that we'll
give it to you, but you're still a thief.
Leo: You have to admit it and then you get a free copy? Ed,
what's the story here? They aren't going to verify that you're using genuine
Windows, right?
Ed: Right. First of all, this is the first time that a
major whole number release of Windows is going to be released through Windows
update. It will show up.
Leo: That's bizarre.
Ed: But they're doing it now with Windows 10 preview. You
can sign up for the Insider program on Windows 7. The Windows 10 upgrade will
show up there on System updates. In the systems that I've tried it on, the
update takes 20 minutes to complete on a Windows 7 machine. Very quick, and
it's been generally pretty accurate. They want to make this a friction free
experience precisely so they can move as many people as possible into this
world. If you start putting piracy checks and things in there, then you add
friction, so they'll make it an update and there it is. You get it, and I think
I tweeted something this week, you can have your windows 10, but you're still a
thief.
Leo: Is this the dialogue box you're talking about? It
says, "This copy of Windows is not genuine. It doesn't pass genuine
validation. To get all Windows updates, you must validate." But that's
Window's genuine advantage. That's the thing you get.
Harry: I've gotten that message many times, on PCs for which
I paid for personally. I think the technology works better today than it did in
the old days, but it's never flawless.
Leo: So we don't know yet what you'll see when you try to
upgrade a pirated version, do we? We don't know.
Ed: You won't know anything until this is actually
officially released. My prediction is that it's simply going to be an update. If
you're running Windows 7, Windows 8, or Windows 8.1, it will just update. There
won't be any questions; aside from do you approve this upgrade?
Leo: So they're not going to have a box that says,
"Are you a pirate?" Yes. Yes. They're not going to give you a
spanking or throw some shade. They're just going to upgrade you.
Jason: Well even better is if they had the online chat window
that popped up when you did it, and you can confess that you are a pirate.
Leo: Just admit you're a pirate, and we'll give you a new
copy of Windows. That's all we ask.
Jason: Exactly. You're welcome The Onion. If you want to
write that piece at the launch of the new Windows 10 about the online chat box and confessional.
Ed: Actually, Jason, I've been working on a piece like
that where I think they should, basically, the message in this post that you
pointed to earlier, Leo. If they're really and truly serious about moving
people forward, just make this an amnesty program for no Enterprise customers. As
part of the agreement at the end when you click OK on the license agreement
that you didn't read, part of it says, "I agree that if my system was not
properly licensed before, I will abide by this license agreement going
forward."
Leo: There's a precedent for something like this though. That's
what Apple did with iTunes Match, in effect. iTunes Match, you pay $25, will match everything in your library. It doesn't check to
see if it's pirated or not, as I did downloaded a lot of stuff from Napster in
the years gone by. I was young and dumb and I needed the money. It's in your
library, will automatically match it and replace it if you ask with 256 KB
licensed versions. It's like that. I expect that Apple went to the music
industry and said, "You're never going to get money from these guys. They
already stole the music. Would you like a portion of $25, make everybody honest
moving forward." Is that analogous to what's going on here?
Ed: Absolutely. It should be very close to that. I was
really hoping with the new leadership at Microsoft that somebody would throw
away the old licensing complication at least for consumers and small businesses
and replace this with something simple. They still have an opportunity to do
that.
Leo: On Wednesday we talked about this on Windows Weekly,
but the next day Paul Thurott published a piece on
his website saying, "sorry. Microsoft is not giving free Windows 10 to
pirates. The original quote came from Terry Myerson, the guy in charge of
Windows 10. He told Reuters, "We are upgrading all qualified PCs, genuine
and non-genuine to Windows 10." Then, Microsoft issued a statement, and
this is the current statement. "We've always been committed to ensuring
customers have the best Windows experience possible. With Windows 10, although
non genuine PCs may be upgradable to Windows 10, the upgrade will not change
the genuine state of the license." You're not made whole by this. You're
not suddenly genuine.
Ed: First of all, the word genuine is such Orwellian
crap-speak. It makes me angry every time I hear them talk about genuine
Windows, because as Harry pointed out, you can have a great deal of money for a
copy of Windows, you can install it on your computer, you can do everything
you're supposed to do, and then through no fault of your own, something comes
up and says this copy of Windows is not genuine. That's a distortion of what
the word means. The lawyers got involved in this at some point, and they took
over the word genuine and distorted it into this weird thing. Leo, the timeline
of this was, it was an article earlier in the week. Microsoft
does this statement, and Paul wrote that article, my story from yesterday,
actually has some additional details on top of that.
Leo: This is typical, by the way, when you cover Microsoft.
There's always this shaded meaning, statements are unclear, there might even be
conflicting statements. So update is—what's the subsequent statement?
Ed: So if you go through here, first of all, back in
January, Terry Myerson stands up and says we're going to give a free upgrade to
every customer with Windows 7 or Windows 8.1. There's a footnote and it says
some additions excluded. We have checked on this, and the additions that are
excluded are Windows RT, which is dead, and Windows Enterprise editions, which
are only available for licensed customers. But everyone else, according to that
January statement, any customer of Windows 7 or 8.1 will get this. Then this
statement comes out this week, and it starts talking about the consumer free
upgrade offer. Wait a minute. When did consumers get dragged into this? When
did we start distinguishing between Consumer versions of Windows and business
versions of Windows? Do we have a surprise coming later this year? Oh, you have
Windows 8.1 Pro? That doesn't have the free upgrade, that has the $10 upgrade. They start with this message of this wonderful thing, and
then the exceptions start being added along the way. Nobody ever said they're
going to give a free upgrade to anyone. What they said, we will allow the
upgrade to proceed on any system, genuine or non-genuine, using their language.
Leo: You pointed out in your article, that's what it is
now, right? That's not new. It doesn't make it genuine. Are they going to
abandon the Windows Genuine Advantage checks?
Ed: It sure would be nice if they would.
Leo: This gives them a loophole. This gives them a chance
to say, "Hey. Here's a copy of Windows. You can't use it though. But we
did give you a free upgrade." Is that what they're going to do, 30 days
later say by the way it's not genuine, so...
Harry: I think they're biggest issue is not individuals
stealing Windows; it's PC makers who steal Windows. Not
the big guys, but smaller guys.
Leo: Little shops who install one copy of windows into 20
PCs.
Harry: It's not you and me, not that we do it, but if we did
steal a copy of Windows, that's not a huge issue.
Leo: But a lot of people are victims of those little shops,
and they have non-genuine editions and they don't know it.
Harry: Microsoft said we're doing you a favor; we're letting
you use it. In the days where they didn't let you continue to use it, they said
we're doing you a favor by telling you the PC you bought has a pirated copy of
Windows on it.
Ed: All the Windows genuine dialogs talks say you might be
a victim.
Leo: We don't blame you, you could be a victim.
Ed: I have no problem with Microsoft continuing to enforce
ant-piracy restrictions on the people who sell new PCs with a copy of Windows
installed they haven't paid for. The reality is, more than 90% of the copies of
Windows that are sold are coming from big companies like Dell and HP and
Lenovo.
Leo: Will those still license Windows?
Ed: Those OEMs still license Windows. They pay for OEM royalty
licensing, where the stuff is automatically activated. There isn't even a
sticker on your PC anymore, there's a hologram on the power supply. They're
getting away from that. The addressable audience of pirates that we're talking
about right now is the dying community of white box builders. Very few people
buy white box PCs anymore.
Jason: It doesn't make sense. A lot of times they're more
expensive or they're not as powerful, that kind of thing. Those little shops
that do that kind of thing, mostly integrators that are serving small
businesses or local communities; there isn't as much a need for it as there
once was. In the same way that there aren't as many IT departments, because
people don't need their hands held to set up their machine or learn how to log
in. Stuff like that. Most companies are assuming that people that they hire now
can get an e-mail or a set of instructions and figure out what to do. The
bottom line is, a lot of times with this genuine advantage stuff, today, it
ends up hurting the people who play by the rules more. Right? If you have a problem with you PC and all of a sudden that genuine advantage
thing causes you a bunch of headaches, even if you bought a genuine copy like
Harry was saying earlier. Microsoft should move away from this. Especially if
their goal is to get Windows on as many machines as possible and to be a
platform that's going to continue to be relevant and ubiquitous, it behooves
them to move away from this type of thing. I don't know that it ever did them
much good; I don't know that it ever helped them that much. Maybe it caused a
few more people to buy licenses, but it seems as if it's been something that
has hurt them. It complicated the Windows experience more than it caused people
to buy licenses.
Harry: It's really been in Microsoft's bones as long as there
has been a Microsoft to be really paranoid and anxious about pirating. There's
that letter that Bill Gates wrote to the community in 1976 where he says I'd
love to hire great programmers to work on software for Microsoft, but I can't
if you're going to continue to steal my software.
Jason: It does. It goes back to the beginnings of the
company. So true.
Leo: It hasn't changed. That's the question though. To get
back to the beginnings of this conversation, how do we parse now? Is this a new
business model for Microsoft? Or maybe it's not. Microsoft has muddied the
waters. Your thesis, Ed, is that they said one thing and the lawyers got a hold
of it and forced them to backtrack. Is there an intention to bring people back
into the fold and move forward, or not?
Ed: Absolutely. The interview that Terry Myerson did with
Reuters, the entire discussion, the key word in that was 're-engage' with the
hundreds of millions of users in China who are using XP who never paid for it,
who are not getting updates and don't feel comfortable getting new Microsoft
services because they know they have pirated copies. The word was 're-engage.' The idea of reengaging with pirates is a
good one. It leads invariably to amnesty for people who violated a business
model that you're ending, and opens all sorts of business opportunities for the
future. We're not going to know how it plays out for a couple months yet.
Jason: I agree. There's definitely a new direction. It goes
back to the DNA of the company; it's so antithetical to the DNA of the company.
It's going to be growing pains to get there.
Leo: Clear communication is comparable to Microsoft's DNA. That's
what my take away is. I don't envy you guys who are trying to cover this
company. I know it can be frustrating.
Ed: I know for every announcement that they make, I'll get
five or six columns out of it as it changes.
Leo: This most recent column on ZD net is the greatest example
of parsing the Microsoft message. What you say in the headline is that it's a
potential licensing mess is the one take away you can get from this.
Ed: If you scroll down on that, scroll down until you get
to the bar chart, I think there's the story of why they need to face the
reality.
Leo: The cost of Windows Vista back in 2006 on launch day
was $150 consumers, $250 to business. Windows 7, $50 on launch day. Windows 8
is now sub $50. Is it free?
Ed: It was $40 and everybody got the pro edition.
Leo: So there's clearly a downward line, and it would make
sense that the next price would be free. You can't get lower than 40 bucks.
Ed: That's the case with every other platform.
Leo: There are no other comparable platforms. You could
point out OSX, but Apple sells hardware. So they don't need to make the money
on the OS.
Harry: Nobody has ever sold you updates on your mobile operating
system ever.
Ed: The point is, regardless of how different the models
may be, once upon a time, Microsoft was involved with 90% or more of every
computing device that was sold on the planet. Today, with mobile devices and
tablets and servers running free operating systems, they have 15 or 20% of the
total market. This is the only one where they expect you to pay for upgrades,
and that's not going to happen.
Harry: Windows just in general, I think there's so many
people out there who are looking for reasons not to upgrade their Windows PC in
a way that is somewhat unusual. When they heard there was no start button in
Windows 8, that was a reason not to do it. Any cost is
a reason not to do it. Windows 10, I think Microsoft to the best of their
ability has removed every argument that might pop into someone's head not to
get—which is a great thing to do overall. It's still pretty sticky for them to
do, but I think they're trying to do the right thing.
Leo: Isn't it the case that most end users thought they
never paid for Windows because they never bought a copy of Windows. They just
bought a new computer.
Harry: Most people upgrade Windows by buying a new compute
every few years.
Leo: So they were never aware that they were paying for
Windows.
Harry: A lot of people are up buying new PCs a lot rarer than
they used to. The old days you bought a new PC every two years and Microsoft
got its money.
Leo: That's a good point. That's another thing that's
changed considerably. So there is an appropriate conversation about Microsoft's
future business model, it's services, its hardware
perhaps. Azure.
Ed: Azure is a huge business for them. Office 365 is
growing faster.
Leo: Are they going to be able to continue to charge for
Office? I guess so. It's a lot cheaper than it used to be. When we bought that
59 dollar windbook, not only did we get Windows for
nothing, I got a year of Office for nothing. And a tablet for
nothing. I don't know what the $59 went to.
Ed: Costco.
Leo: Probably the retailing. Microcenter. It's a brave new world. It's fascinating. It is good, because it means that
there's renewed interest in what Microsoft is up to. It is meaningful for
business for sure. I guess consumers still buy Windows, obviously, so that it's
going to matter to consumers. Does it? I guess I live in a bubble. I don't know
many Windows users. People seem to be using something else.
Ed: People who live in Silicon Valley, it's not the same
as the rest of the world.
Leo: You go to Trade shows, you don't see a lot of, you see a lot of glowing Apple logos. Even at the Microsoft
event.
Harry: You go to Starbucks in most parts of the country, and
the balance is different.
Leo: I see.
Ed: Go to airports that are not San Francisco and JFK, and
you'll see more of a balance. Even there, you're looking at affluent people who
can afford to travel, or have a job, or their employer pays them to travel.
Leo: A lot of people have Windows XP desktop at home.
Harry: Or go into an office somewhere in the country where
people have desktop PCs. Curtis is asking in the chatroom, I think it's a
reasonable comment. They said for a year, what happens a year after Windows 10
comes out? Are they going to start charging again?
Ed: I asked the same question. Do they really think that
they're going to be able to charge for it after a year? Anybody who is
motivated to upgrade an existing PC or device running Windows 7 or Windows 8.1
is going to do it in the first year because it's free, after that, the only
people who will be left are the people who deliberately chose not to do so, or
a small number of unlucky bastards who bought something that has been sitting
on the shelf at their local Wall Mart or whatever, and they take it home and
discover that they have to pay.
Leo: Once you give something away, you can't start
charging. It's all about getting everybody up to Windows 10 as quickly as
possible.
Ed: It adds a sense of urgency. Do this now.
Leo: That's the real message of that. We're going to take a
break. We've got a good pane for this Windows discussion, I tell you. Jason Hiner from Tech Republic, CBS
Interactive. We've got the Technologizer,
Harry McCracken from Fast Company, Ed Bott,
zdnet.com. All of them have been covering Windows and Enterprise for years, and
they know this subject. Let's keep talking, but first a word from Citrix
GoToMeeting. Anybody who works in business, especially modern business where
people are distributed all over the world, not just your colleagues, but your
customers, know that meetings are no longer sitting around a table in a room. The way to meet, of course from the comfort of your computer, or
your Smartphone, or your tablet. You can share the same screen, you can see each other face-to-face. They've got
that incredible HD video conferencing. It's a smarter way to meet, even if you're all in the same space sometimes it's easier to use GoToMeeting. From
GoToMeeting you can go to any computer, tablet, or Smartphone. No travel
expense, no traffic. All you have to do is click the link. It's really easy to
start a meeting once the link goes out. They click the link; they don't have to
sign up. They get the software in a minute at most, usually it's faster than
that, and there they are. They're in the meeting. Almost everybody now has a
great web cam in their device, whether it's a tablet or a desktop. That makes
you feel like you're in the same room. You can share screens, you can see each
other, you can get feedback in real time. Everybody
sees what you're seeing in GoToMeeting, so your team is on the same page. I
love GoToMeeting, and that's why I want you to sign up for 30 days free. gotomeeting.com,
click the try it free button. Friction free meetings. Wouldn't
that be nice? gotomeeting.com, try it free today for the next 30 days you'll be
hooked. We thank those good folks at Citrux for their
support. Windows hello. That's another thing Terry
Mires talked about. What is Windows Hello here? Hello.
Harry: Windows Hello is biometric security for Windows PC. It's finger scanning; it's facial recognition with infrared
cameras.
Leo: So you might walk up to your Windows 10 PC and it
would say, just like your Xbox one does now, "Oh hi, Harry." Would it
log you in?
Harry: It would log you in with the proper hardware, yeah.
Leo: I like that.
Ed: If you've opted in.
Leo: So you have to turn it on, obviously.
Harry: I believe all flavors of it involve special hardware,
which is not standard.
Leo: So all Microsoft is doing is saying, "Hey, we're
going to make sure it's in the OS.. But OEMS, you've
got to put in there.
Harry: Which is a great thing. I'd
recommend it for anything you do that requires security on your computer. You're dependant on the company behind a particular service.
Leo: Right. It could be used for 2 factor too, right?
Ed: There's a second part to this, which is interesting,
which is Passport. Which is Microsoft's continuing, quest to
re-use every product they've ever used.
Leo: Passport was their single sign in solution, but it
never took off.
Ed: Then it became Windows live ID, and then it became the
Microsoft account. So the Passport component of it is really interesting, so if
you have a Windows 10 device, it can be enrolled essentially with your
biometric information, so the cryptographic hardware component at the heart of
your device, there's a virtual layer on top of that that's going to securely
store this, but it's basically going to say this device and your biometric
information together will allow you to sign in to online services.
Leo: So this is not just for logging into Windows, this is
for getting into websites.
Ed: Windows Hello logs you into your PC. The passport
thing provides a secure form of authentication, and it uses the Fido standard,
so it doesn't have to be—nobody has to do anything with Microsoft servers or
anything like that. The idea is that you could have a picture of my face and
use it to sign in as me somewhere, but that's not going to work because you
don't have my device. If you have my device, but you don't have my biometric
information—it's the combination of those two that is essential. What they're
trying to do is finally make authentication something that mere mortals can
use.
Leo: will they do it? Because you've got
to get OEMs to put expensive hardware into the computers.
Ed: The hardware is already there.
Jason: It's getting so much cheaper.
Leo: If you're seeing finger print readers in Samsung and
Apple phones, it can't be too expensive.
Harry: It's like a chicken and the egg situation. You need
the hardware, you need the software, you need
consumers to want to use it.
Leo: If it's Face recognition—Microsoft said you can't just
use the camera you got. It's got to have infrared sensing. It's more like the
Connect.
Ed: It's the same technology that they’ve been using with
Connect at one time. There are liveness tests with
it.
Leo: Otherwise you could pull up a picture of Ed Bott and it would look like you, but it has to test to see
if your infrared is—
Jason: We need to factor authentication. We need it in the
worst way. So many of the breaches and things that happened is poor security,
but passwords still are the weakest link. We need to factor, so anything that
pushes it forward is a good thing. I think you have to look at this as
something that's needed. The question is how to implement it. Can it move the
needle? Can it get a lot more people on it more quickly? We've talked about it.
It's the largest platform out there, even though it's now 15% of all computing
devices, whereas it used to be closer to 90. It's still one of the biggest
chunks. If it can move this forward in a meaningful way, it makes the world
more secure.
Leo: April 5, 2006. 9 years ago Ed Bott wrote an article: Why does Microsoft Passport Suck? Good news. You can recycle
that article, Ed. Who'd have thought it? Isn't that funny? That's the other
Passport. It's a single sign on. So Fido, for some reason, I get the sense that
Google—they're not involved with it, right?
Ed: They're a bit part of it.
Leo: That's good news. It needs to be a standard that
everybody gets behind, right?
Ed: Visa and MasterCard, almost all the banks are involved
with Fido. You can put it on Windows devices. You've already got Samsung and
Apple devices that have touch ID. They can add this same basic type of
authentication. If you have people doing this, there are no more passwords
anymore. At least for those transactions. There's no
password being stored on a server that could be stolen by some guy in the
Ukraine. There's no password that you are typing into your laptop when you're
sitting in a coffee shop that can be stolen by a guy who has hacked into the Wi-Fi
access point. This is all well tested cryptographic technology. There's no
reason why this can't work and work well and sooner than anybody expects.
Leo: It's going to look a lot like touch ID does right now
with Apple pay. This is from Fido Alliance site. Password experience, password
less experienced would be you want to make a transaction, you've authenticated
to your hardware for instance with a touch ID on an IOS device. The 2 factor
adds additional dongle.
Ed: It's simply where you've gone through a process of
enrolling that device. So if you have an iPhone or a Windows phone or whatever,
it has a cryptographic device on it.
Leo: Authentication is one of the central issues in
computing. It's for payments, it's also for logging
into a website. We didn't have passwords a hundred years ago, except maybe to
get into a speakeasy. Swordfish. But before that,
nobody had passwords. This is only a recent problem created by the web. Boy, I
would love to see it solved.
Harry: It's amazing how long the hardware has existed. When
did the first PCs with finger print scanners come out? 15 years ago? Maybe longer. It never has caught on, but it does feel good
now.
Leo: So the second factor could just be your phone. Maybe
you had a pin. A pin plus the phone would be a two factor—
Ed: That would actually be a 3 factor. If you had
biometric, it's multi factor authentication. Basically
imagine the nightmare scenario for a Hollywood star who has their picture everywhere. Their password gets stolen, but if the only way
into the secrets they don't want to share is with a device that has been
enrolled to them, the fact that you've stolen their secret and the fact that
you can place a picture of them in front of the camera, you've got to have
their device too. At that point, you've got multi-factor identification,
that works pretty well.
Leo: Good news. This would be great. Our friend Steve
Gibson has created a thing called Squirrel, which eliminates passwords logging
into websites. It's similar. In some ways it's more elegant than Fido, but the
fact that you've got all these elements backing up Fido seems to me, even if
there's a better solution out there, this seems like it's going to go. Not a
moment too soon I might add. I have a Yubkey that is
Fido 2 compliant. It's one of those USB devices you plug in there. I guess that
would be a form of authentication.
Ed: The Yubikey works with last
pass. One of the biggest—I've used that before. Basically, you're traveling somewhere
and you go to a hot spot in some dodgy place, and you want to have last pass
authenticate you in somewhere. If someone has stolen your last pass password,
they can't get into your store of extremely valuable passwords unless they have
that USB key, and then when they take that USB key away, whatever you entered
on that PC is no longer useful.
Leo: The last 3 TWIT episodes have been almost entirely
devoted to the Apple Watch. Thank God we have something else to talk about, and
we have someone in the chatroom saying, "Where's the Apple Watch
news?" We just go where the news leads us. Believe me, we'll be talking about the Apple Watch in a few weeks. I'm sure we're not done
with that. This was a story, and I want some clarification on this, Bob,
because I can swear that two or three months ago on Windows Weekly, we said
Microsoft is going to—Project Spartan, is going to replace Internet Explorer,
and it's going to have a new name. For some reason this week, every blog in the
world published this. Here's Tom Warren on the Verge. "Microsoft is killing
off the Internet explorer brand." Didn't we know this? What's new?
Ed: Nothing.
Leo: Just checking.
Harry: They're not really killing it off.
Leo: They're still going to put it on Windows for compatibility.
Harry: It's Microsoft. There will never be a clean
transition. I think they said it in a clearer fashion. When they first showed
Spartan, they did not say, "This thing will definitely not be called
IE." They're not saying what Spartan will be called.
Leo: Right, they haven't come up with a name yet. Spartan
is different than IE. They forked the engine, whether the fork will eliminate
plugs.
Ed: There are two problems here. One is ad-ons. If you have a browser that runs ad-ons,
it becomes a vector for malware and things that cause pop ups.
Leo: Chiefly Adobe reader and Flash.
Ed: Anything with the Ask brand name. There's that. The
bigger part of the problems with web compatibility these days are websites that
are written and tested because they assume that the entire world runs on
Chrome. So you show up with another browser, whatever it is, even if it's
Opera, which is running on a rendering engine that is very similar to Chrome. Actually,
Opera these days is running on Blink.
Leo: Really? Which is Google's web kit.
Ed: I've run the latest version of Opera, and I've gone to
websites that fail because the developers—basically Chrome is now the new
Internet Explorer.
Leo: Chrome market share is not in the game, it's Chrome.
Ed: In terms of the thing that people write websites to
work with.
Harry: People write websites, they use Chrome. It's like
Windows. I think there are large parts of the world where market break down is
different. I also feel, by the way, that nobody knows for sure the market shares
of web browsers. If you look at the three or four biggest companies, they're
radically different. They have different people in the first place. With some
of them, Firefox looks bad, and with some of them, Firefox looks like it's
doing pretty well.
Leo: Here's the good news. We have choice, and there's a
standard which means that websites look alike no matter where you go or what
you use, right?
Ed: There are so many standards. That's the great thing
about standards is there are so many of them.
Leo: We're involved in a web redesign right now. It's
fascinating to watch. What's nice for web developers is that there are now
tools that will make it so you just put some code in it and it automatically
checks the browser. It's hard to do.
Harry: Sometimes when I put together websites I've suddenly
noticed they don't really work at all. They may not work well in Spartan.
Leo: Is Spartan going to be more standards compliant? What
does that even mean?
Harry: For the last god knows how many years, every version
of IE Microsoft always says is it standards compliant. We're not going to
assume the world is going to tweak everything to work in IE anymore. That
mantra has been going on for 7 or 8 years or more. Unless they actually adopt,
there will be some technical challenges.
Ed: So the thing about web standards—first of all, there's
two standards organizations. There's W3C, and what WG or something. There's basically two standards organizations, but the
reality is that web technology is moving so quickly that basically by the time
a standard is declared, it was already adopted 12 or 18 months earlier. So the defacto thing now is does it run on Chrome? Have you tested
it on other things? Put it into production. If people complain about it, we'll
fix it, if it's a big enough market for our company to
pay attention to this group of people who are complaining about it. That's the
reality. The standards these days are defacto, not
actual declared standards anymore.
Leo: I'm sorry, I got distracted. Somebody sent us a link
to windows93.net. Have you seen this website?
Ed: I have, I
love it.
Leo: Thank you
chatroom for ruining the rest of my day. Let's see, what is this? Credits, here
is who wrote it. Then when you close the window it's kind of whoa. "Warning,
a satanic kitten orgy is happening on Zkype right
now. We are rooting hard, restoring the normality, stay tuned." Okay. Acid Box 93. I don't know what this is. This is like
zombo.com, right? This is the gift that keeps on giving, windows93.net. What
happens if I pick Shut Down? Oh, it shuts down, and reboots. Very
true to life.
Ed: It did
restart quickly though.
Leo: Much
faster than normal. Let me try one more time if I can shut this down. See, now
it's rebooting again. I like the Startup sound. I will play with this more
later. Thank you to whoever mentioned this in the chatroom.
Ed: But Leo,
the problem with Spartan is that we are almost into April now, right?
Leo: Yeah.
Ed: And Windows
10 is going to ship this summer.
Leo: Soon.
Ed: So let's
just pick mid-summer. Let's just say that sometime in early August would be a
logical time for them to do whatever the 2015 equivalent of releasing to
manufacturing is. No one outside of Microsoft has tested this new browser yet
and we are less than 4 months away from...
Leo: That's
not a good sign, is it?
Ed: That
seems weird to me.
Leo: Yeah, it
doesn't come in the Windows 10 Beta, which by the way, an update came out to
that this week.
Ed: It's not
in the latest update.
Leo: It's not
in there? So you've got millions of people trying, testing, and banging on
Windows 10, but not Spartan. That's not there. They don't even have a name yet
that we know of. Here is another interesting story; John Russell at TechCrunch
points out that at the end of the Microsoft announcement they mentioned that
they are testing Windows 10 with power users of Xiaomi's Mi 4 Android smartphone? Windows 10 Phone runs on Android? What is the story here?
Ed: So you
know how the HTC One M8...
Leo: You can
get Windows Phone on it. It's gorgeous.
Ed: They have
an Android version and they have a Windows version, and they are absolutely
identical hardware except for the ROM. So what they are doing apparently is
that they are reflashing the ROM.
Leo: And it
works?
Ed: So then
you can install Windows Phone on top of it in the same way that you can take
your PC that you buy from your WhiteBox builder and
you can put Linux on it or you can put Window on it.
Leo: That
would be an interesting move for Microsoft to offer ROMs for smartphones for
Windows 10 for Android devices. That would be very interesting. I would be
interested. Are they thinking of doing that do you think?
Ed: God only
knows.
Leo: They have
to be careful because they don't want to give anybody the impression that
Windows Phone is not a viable platform all by itself. Although I think that
everybody has already got that impression. I do like the strategy that
Microsoft has. I like it as a company that wants to do software, they want to do their own apps. The question about should we do a Windows Phone
app is a tough one because while I want to support our Windows users and our
Windows Weekly viewers we know how smart a market Windows Phone is. Microsoft
solves that conundrum a little bit by offering that universal platform where we
could develop for Windows Desktop and...
Ed: Meh.
Leo: We could
make one app that is metro. The thing that is compelling is if it would run on
the Xbox. Which apparently it would, right?
Ed: For an
app like yours it actually does make sense.
Leo: It's not
complicated. I'm not running Excel here.
Ed: It's not
complicated, and it's also a media consumption product that works on a device
that is this big or one that is a 50 inch TV.
Leo: We have
been kept off of Xbox One because of the ownerless process of making a Xbox app. It's very costly.
Ed: Yeah, so
for a media app like yours the universal app does make sense. Now imagine
banking for example.
Leo: Yes, of
course. Chase just pulled its app from Windows Phone.
Ed: So did B
of A.
Leo: So did B
of A. Chase has actually taken the app away.
Harry: Based on
lack of interest?
Leo: I don't
know. It's too much trouble to keep it up to date and there is not enough
people using it. I guess that it would be. If you are doing a banking app it's
not like you can just say that we will use the old one. You have to at some
point tell them that you can't continue to use the old one, it's not secure anymore or whatever.
Ed: I think
that the argument was that at some point they were not going to be able to
support it. It wasn't economically viable for them, the market wasn't big
enough, and they said at some point it's going to break, so rather than wait
until we do an update to our back end that causes it to break and we have to go
oops to our however many thousands or tens of thousands Windows users there and
say sorry, we broke it and we are not going to fix it; they said we are just
going to pull it from the store. I think that they gave a month's notice or
something, but they said rather than have this break unexpectedly we are going
to have it break expectedly.
Leo: They told
us last month that they were pulling it, but as of yesterday it started working.
So, you know, even...
Harry: They did
that knowing that this universal Windows development platform is eminent, which
is not a great...
Leo: As of
3/22/15 we are no longer supporting the Chase Mobile App for Windows Phone. To
continue to access your Chase accounts on your Windows Phone after 3/22, that's
today, please visit chase.com in the browser.
Harry: It's kind
of like the 1990's where if you were a Mac user one by one a bunch of really
important things stopped being developed for your Mac because the people who
were responsible had no faith in the continued viability of the platform.
Leo: It's sad
in the same way too because Windows Phone is great.
Ed: There is
another issue of the universal app story that doesn't work which is that all of
those PCs will fully support web apps. So they will just say if you are using a
PC why should we build a universal app that will only run on Windows 10 when we
can just say open your browser, and go to chase.com, and sign in, and we will
send you your 2 factor code, and you can do anything that you want to on the
web. Then with an iPhone or with the Android Platform you have got enough 10s
or 100s of million users that you can build an app that has additional
capabilities, like you can take a picture of a check and deposit it or
something. Those are the sort of unique capabilities that you get with a mobile
app that you don't need on a PC.
Leo: I have to
say that even the Android apps for some banks are pretty much just thinly
veiled skins to browser interactions. It's pretty obvious, right? So why not
just do a browser based app? Especially if you can
make it secure and make it work? Why not? What is the
disadvantage? I know, I was all excited about the universals thing, but you
have poured water on that now.
Ed: It's what
I do Leo.
Leo: One more
Microsoft story and then we will move on. Sling TV comes to Xbox One. This is
really more a story of Sling TV. This is really the first time that we have
seen traditional cable channels go over the top, especially ESPN. I think this
is kind of under the shadow of Apple apparently making moves, we think, this
fall to do this.
Harry: Sony has
PlayStation View as of last week.
Leo: Tell me
about that, I haven't seen that.
Harry: It's the
closest thing that Sling TV has to an arch rival right now. Right now it's only
on PlayStations and only in New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia, but it's
another over the top service that does 85 channels. It has richer functionality
than Sling TV because it has cloud based DVR, and Catch Up, and On Demand. It's
coming to the iPad. I think that Sony says that it is coming to other devices. I
wrote about it, and I said that it was the closest thing to cable TV for the
internet and it's really comparable pricing.
Leo: Doesn't
it come down to the channels, not functionality? Is it the same channels?
Harry: It's a
lot of them. It's not every single one. They don't have ESPN. They do have a
deal with NBC and CBS.
Leo: NBC is
doing the same thing with Apple. They are saying to Apple that we don't want to
go along for the ride. We will have our own app.
Harry: Nobody
has all of the channels that you want yet. But PlayStation View does have more
channels than Sling does right now.
Leo: How much
is it?
Harry: It starts
at like $50 and it goes up to $70.
Leo: A month?
Harry: Yes. You
are not going to get this and cable. If you are cheap you are not going to get
this, it really is sort of a form of pay TV that happens to come across the
internet to your PlayStation, but a well done one as far as I can see.
Leo: I will
have to try it. Sling TV is $20 a month. You get ESPN 1 and 2, you get AMC, and
when Mad Men returns in a month that is going to be a big deal.
Harry: And there
are add on packs. The thing about Sling is that there are $5 add on packs and they are by theme, so if you like sports you can pay an extra $5. The
PlayStation View pricing is more similar to tiers on cable where the more you
pay the more channels you get. It's a sort of a random assortment of extra
channels.
Leo: For $20
you get these basic ones; IFC, ESPN 1 and 2, CNN, Disney, and AMC Family. Then
you can add Sports Extra, which gives you ESPN U, ESPN News, Universal Sports. There is a Kids Extra. There is a Hollywood Extra.
Jason: There are
like 4 or 5 of them.
Leo: And each
is $5.
Jason: So it is
kind of comparable because it's $45 for all of them.
Leo: Yeah, but
I'm not sure that I want all of them.
Ed: So what
is interesting with Sling TV is that I actually Tweet stormed my setup
experience with Sling TV on the Xbox One this week. It was not a good
experience. They had some real problems. I was really excited because it was
the first day that it was available, and I have a Xbox
One in the living room, and I thought, oh, I will see what this is like. They
are giving every Xbox One owner one free month with the basic service so that
you can try it out there. It's really not a good sign up experience. So I
talked to the folks from Sling TV, and they acknowledged that they had some
problems with it. They now to appear to have fixed all of those setup
processes, so I was able to use it last night, and so while it has some really
appealing things to it; one of the things that I did was that I turned on the
NCAA games last night and said this was great. Then I discovered, first of all,
you can't pause.
Leo: Oh, it's
like live TV.
Ed: Yeah, it
is exactly like live TV. Apparently some of their channels will offer like 3
days of back content that you can watch. But even there it is
up to the content provider on whether you can skip commercials or not and
whether the fast forward and rewind buttons will work or not. When it
worked for me last night the picture quality was just superb, it was really,
really good. Then, all of the sudden at a very crucial part of the game it just
started freezing up. It would go for 10 seconds and then there would be some
guy standing there like this with a basketball leaving his hand, then it would
start up again and I didn't know what happened, I had to see the scoreboard to
see what had happened.
Leo: You, I
presume, have very good internet. Your Skype is looking good.
Ed: Yeah,
this was a wired full bandwidth 15 mb connection, so
there wasn't anything there. I think that it is just that we are in, even
though cord cutting is starting to happen and starting to really hurt cable and
satellite providers, we are still early in the technology days.
Leo: It's not
hurting them enough.
Ed: It's
going to be messy for a long time. There is an entire generation of people who
are going to say screw this, I will watch whatever is on my computer.
Leo: That's
what I think.
Ed: Yep.
Leo: That's
what I think.
Jason: I see
that already too. Exactly that.
Leo: We want
an analog to our existing system of live TV to cable. They don't care. If it is
on YouTube it's good enough.
Jason: There are
so many channels. The thing that comes out again and again is that most people
only watch 5-10 channels, right? For years we've been saying, okay, if they
could offer them ala carte then probably they would keep more customers. Eventually
people have kind of gotten hung up. Most of the people that I know under 30 do
not have a cable subscription.
Leo: All you
really care about is high speed internet, period. And you will figure it out.
Jason: Yeah,
there more people in their 30s and 40s I see too, that are just tired of it. They
don't watch enough of it. They don't have enough time, or whatever, and so they
just cut. There are things that they want, and they wish that they could just
pay for in ala carte, they would pay $5 a month or whatever for some of their
favorite channels, but it's one of those things that it is going to be messy,
it is ugly, and that is one of those solutions that there is a lot of tension
in the solutions. At least it's finally happening. At least there are some
options. 2015 seems like it has the potential to be like a watershed year.
Leo: It feels
like there are cracks. I want to take a break, and when we come back I want to
talk about Ben Thompson of Stratechery's take on
this. He says, actually this is from an article that he wrote some time ago,
"Cable TV is socialism. It works. Subscribers pay equally for everything
and watch only what they want to the benefit of everyone. Any grand vision
Apple or any tech company has for television is like to sustain the current
model, not disrupt it directly." Think about that, we will talk about what
that means and whether you agree in a moment. But first we have a word from
Harry, or Harry's. Do you own Harry's?
Harry: I can
enthusiastically endorse anything with Harry in the name.
Leo: You are
going to love Harry's if you haven't tried Harry's yet, please. Harry's is
fixing a problem that we all have, or most of us do, paying too much for
overpriced razor blades. First of all, shaving is bad enough. I mean, really,
let's face it guys, and gals too, I guess. It's just
not fun to get up every morning and shave. Razors are expensive, they run about $4 a blade. If you shave every day you are spending hundreds of
dollars a year on just razor blades. They are locked up. They are worth so much
they are locked up in a cabinet at the drug store. Harry's had decided that
they want to make this better. They want to make the shaving experience, hey
it's not going to be fun, but it's going to be better. Actually, you know what?
It could be fun. Harry's sells high quality razor blades at about half of the
price of those big brand names because, and I love this, this is Silicon Valley
mentality, when Harry's started a couple of years ago they said where do the
best razor blades come from? Well, there are only 2 factories and they are both
in Germany, so they bought one. They said, yeah, okay, we will take it. We will
take a factory please. So now they control the production of this factory. They
engineer for performance, for sharpness, and they ship them free to your front
door. Because they sell them direct to you they can sell them at about half of
the cost of the blade that you buy in the drug store. That is nice, factory
direct. Because they own the factory. By the way, if
you are going to go to harrys.com take a look at the kits because that is how
you get started. You need the Harry's handle. Now, here is where they could
really take you for a ride, but they don't. Take a look at the Truman, this is
the base model. You get 3 blades, a gorgeous handle in a variety of colors, and
you get either their foam or their cream. You know what, they both have their
partisans. I like the cream that comes in a tube, but some people say that I
prefer a gel, so they have a choice. For $15 you get all of that plus a travel
holder which I really like. Three blades, the handle, and the gel or the cream
for $15, but I am going to make it even more affordable. If you want a nice
metal handle you can go out and get the Winston, which is the next one up,
that's $25, you can even get it engraved with your name on it. Harry gives me a
clean, close, comfortable shave. I have to say, it does make shaving a lot more
pleasurable, and I love the cream. They even have a new moisturizer which you
will like. Once you buy the kit, the starter kit, you are going to get those
blades. You can say every month, every other month, as needed, automatically
refilled. So here is the deal, you have got to try it. The kit is very
affordable because we are going to give you $5 off at harrys.com. Your first
purchase use the offer code TWIT and the number 5, TWIT5. H-a-r-r-y-s.com, that makes it $10 to try this. Get the Truman, you
will love it. I get tweets all of the time from people who go crazy because
they just love Harry's. You will love it too Harry. Be the smartest man in the
bathroom at harrys.com. Make sure you use the offer code TWIT5 to get $5 off at
checkout.
This is very interesting, I think that what Ben Thompson is really
saying about cord cutting is that you have really got an entrenched industry;
don't expect to save money. Don't even expect to change the structure of
television if that is your plan because these incumbents are so entrenched and
they have so much power. Apple can't come to them and say let's change this all
this fall. Apple has been trying to negotiate these things for years with no
success. Why all of the sudden are we saying that it is going to happen in the
fall? I'm not convinced.
Harry: Well, the
owners have loosened up a bit. That's why Sling TV exists, that's why the
PlayStation stuff exists.
Leo: The
content companies have loosened up, right? But I guess maybe they are less
afraid of the cable companies. Is that why?
Harry: HBO is
finally biting the bullet and doing this, so something is happening with or
without Apple, but presumable Apple is going to do as good or better of a job
as anybody pushing forward.
Leo: Somebody
in the chatroom said, and I'm curious if you will dispute this, it doesn't
matter because you are going to end up paying just as much. You aren't going to
save money on a cord cutter scenario, you may even end
up paying more.
Harry: You may
have a little bit more flex to choose what you want. The nice thing about Sling
TV is that you can do it a little bit cheaper and you will probably not end up
subscribing to 75 channels that you never watch. You will have a smaller number
of channels which you might watch.
Leo: Yeah,
because then you only buy the stuff, as you said 5 channels, you only buy the
stuff that you care about.
Harry: I would
hope that Comcast and DIRECTV and everybody would be forced to respond to that
in some shape or form.
Leo: Remember
that the Comcast margin on internet according to Ben is 97%. It is a very
profitable business. So all of us have been saying, oh man, Comcast is never
going to let go of this premium TV business. Wait a minute. As long as they get
the price high enough, 97% margin, they are going to be perfectly happy to be
your internet service provider. I didn't realize that it was that high, but of
course it is. With cable TV they are paying $16 a month for ESPN for every
subscriber. Internet costs them nothing.
Ed: I'm a
little skeptical about that number. They have fairly substantial capital costs.
Leo: Yeah, but
once you do it, I don't think that the maintenance is huge on this stuff.
Ed: Yeah,
well if you want to be able to deliver faster speeds to people you have got to
dig up roads and put in fiber.
Leo: This is a
good article in the MIT Technology Review that referred to, David Talbot wrote this in 2013, referred to by Ben Thompson in Stratechery, in which one of the things he said was that
labor was actually the big cost. About 80% of the cost is the labor of digging
up the street, not the fiber itself.
Jason: Sure,
sure, and paying for permits.
Leo: Yeah, but
once you get the fiber laid you are just rolling in dough.
Jason: They are
going to have a reinvestment. They are due to have some reinvestment. A lot of
the stuff that is there is stuff that they have had for years. Google Fiber is
putting pressure on them and others to do some big upgrades so that they can
keep up. We have written about this on Tech Republic repeatedly. Google Fiber I
think is for real and they see it as a massive opportunity.
Leo: They see
it as a business not as a proof of concept?
Jason: I think
that they see it as a business. I think that long term they see it as a
business for Google. They know the internet, they know that everything that
they do on the internet contributes to their bottom line, and they know that
the companies that run this now are the least like companies as an industry. They
are running below lawyers and journalists.
Leo: For a
while the cable guy was outpacing heart attacks as the least desirable thing in
America. I'm not making that up.
Jason: Yes.
Leo: You would
rather have a heart attack than see the cable guy.
Ed: Your
heart attack will be here between 4 and 8 pm this evening.
Leo: It's more
predictable, yes.
Jason: Exactly,
it's more predictable. The thing is that Google sees this as a real
opportunity. Because of that they are putting real pressure on...
Leo: Is it
profitable, Google Fiber?
Jason: Oh yeah,
oh yeah.
Leo: It is? $70 a month.
Jason: Yes,
especially right now, because they are going in and they are buying a lot of
dark fiber. They are buying fiber that has been abandoned or fiber than was
laid and nobody used it.
Leo: There is
a lot of that.
Jason: There is,
there is plenty. Municipalities have laid, like in
Provo they went in, Provo was going to put fiber to the home in every place and
the whole project fell apart. Google swooped in, bought all of that fiber at a
cut rate, and made it active and turned it on, and is still turning it on, in
Provo.
Leo: Let me
ask you, you are in Chattanooga, right?
Jason: Yeah, not
far away. So they have fiber there too.
Leo: They had
Federal funds, they spent $110 million. Chattanooga municipality owns the
fiber.
Jason: Yes.
Leo: They
charge a lot for access, it's gigabit. Is it open to
other providers or are they the only provider on top of that?
Jason: I'm not
sure about that Leo. I don't think at this point that it is open to other
providers.
Leo: See, that
is not what we want.
Ed: It's the
new monopoly, same as the old monopoly.
Leo: Yeah,
that's not what we want.
Jason: Right,
exactly. We need competition. There is no doubt. The whole economic system that
we live under in the United States is based on competition. When you don't have
real competition then that's when things have problems. We've got an internet
realm, and Google does all kinds of crazy, weird, things, and I do tip my hat
to them for what they are doing in fiber. I think that they have made the right
steps. They are not going everything right, we have written about that too. In
some of these things they talk a big game about helping out little guys and
giving out free internet. They will give you free internet in those Google
fiber areas. You get a much more cut rate speed. They talk a big game about
that, about rolling it out for free. In order to do it for
free there are weird obstacles. You have to prepay for some of your
equipment and things like that, and then it becomes cost prohibitive to the
kind of people who could kind of really benefit from this kind of thing. So
they have got plenty of kinks to iron out. In general they are on the right
path and it's going to put pressure on the Comcasts of the world to do kind of upgrades. Back to what I was getting at with Ed's
point was they were going to have to invest more in their networks to keep up
with Google Fiber, and that's ultimately a good thing. That 97% profit margin
is going to go down, but it's still going to be highly profitable.
Leo: Is this a
good time to launch an over the top service or a bad time? Over
the top means not over the television but over the internet.
Harry: There are
some cool ones out there. I wrote about Shout Factory TV, which is all kind of
quirky stuff, and there is Acorn TV, which is all British stuff.
Leo: It seems
to me that it would be nuts to start a new cable channel today, which by the
way is very expensive, as we found out at Tech TV.
Harry: All of
the little guys are only being carried along because they are being carried
along by that big price that you pay for the stuff that you do.
Leo: That's
that socialism at work, yeah. The guy who started Discovery has gone on to
create something called Curiosity Stream at curiousitystream.com. It is the
same thing, it's streaming kind of Discovery style
programming. You are going to be a little guy unless you hit a niche. This
might be a niche, there are people who watch the
history channel all day. Or you get the big show, you pull a Netflix and you
get House of Cards.
Harry: Netflix
is paying $5 billion dollars a year, or will be, for original content.
Leo: That's a
lot of money. And that's tough because if you don't get a hit you've really
thrown that money away. Hollywood is a hit based economy. A lot of these
companies only make it because they have 1 in 10 massive successes.
Harry: You are
not going to pay $8 a month for 15 different services.
Leo: You need
to be the 1 or the 2...
Harry: Or you
need to be the model that doesn't involve that. Shout Factory TV is actually ad
supported.
Leo: Oh,
that's interesting. So it's free?
Ed: Well
yeah.
Leo: Hey,
don't knock...
Ed: Two
things about Google Fiber. Number one, there was a story a couple of weeks ago
where they found some correspondence from Google to some of the municipal
governments of the cities that they were planning to come in to. The
communications from Google basically said, you know, if you make this easy, if you remove obstacles from the permitting process and
make this easy for us to get in here then we will move into your community. Anything
else we are not interested, we will just leave and go somewhere else. So they
are basically just cherry picking places to come in. It's economically rational
for them to do it. If I were running a business I would do it the same way. But
they are cherry picking the places where they can run the business exactly the
way that they want to. The second thing that I saw that seemed to be dot that
deserves to be connect here is the thing about AT&T and their U-Verse
service. Remember, they were offering if you pay us $10 more we won't sell your
personal information to advertisers. Right, remember this? While I genuinely
admire what Google is doing to bring high speed internet to large parts of the
country it is also profoundly in their economic interest. Right now they only get
information about you when you are visiting a site, and you are signed into
Google, and that site has services like ad sends or Google analytics.
Leo: I want
Google to know more about me.
Ed: When they
own the fiber you won't have a choice on whether they know more about you. Literally
every single packet that comes from your home to Google Fiber they will know
about. So if you are happy with that that's great, but I think that it's
something that we should be...
Leo: We should
be aware of.
Ed: ...aware
of and talking about.
Leo: I know
that it's really bothering me. I want Google Now to be more useful. The more it
knows about me the happier I am to be honest. What do I care? I want ads that
I'm interested in. I don't want ads that I'm not interested in.
Jason: The city
thing is interesting too. I think Google is absolutely going into the cities
that make it easy for them, and I think that they are going in there first, and
I think that their thing is that we will go in there first and you will be
jealous of that neighboring city that you are really competitive with, now all
of the sudden their small businesses, and their entrepreneur, and their
citizens are getting better internet, and they are asking you why we don't have
it. Why does Nashville and here in Memphis we don't have it? That will put
pressure. I think that is their game.
Leo: They went
into Nashville because they had a very low level of regulatory involvement. They
greased it as Ed was saying.
Jason: Yep, yep.
You can read a lot on this. You can read a bunch on this at Tech Republic. Connor
Forrest has done some really good research, including the cities that were most
likely to get Google Fiber next that have sort of the factors that play into
their favor.
Leo: Oh really?
Jason: Yes.
Leo: I would
throw the whole city council of Petaluma out of office and elect robots if we
could get Google Fiber. Rubber stamping Google bots. Why
should I worry, Ed, about Google knowing every TV bit I watch and every
internet that I watch?
Ed: I don't
think that anyone should be able to collect and preserve every bit of
information that you have. If you want to opt into that, if you think that it's
great, fine, but I don't want anyone collecting and collating a database of
information.
Leo: I'm
curious, I'm willing to let you talk me out of this, but what is the harm you
are worried about?
Ed: We have
been through this before, and the harm is when they sell that information to
someone else who makes a decision about you like an insurance company. A health
insurance company decides to deny you coverage because of something that they
found in your internet history. An employer decides that they are not going to
hire you because there is something in a database about you. The real problem,
to me, is that these random collections of data about us can create an
impression that is incorrect. That's the worst part. I want control over it.
Leo: If you
take a picture of yourself eating donuts and put it on Facebook you could be doing
the same damage. At least I get something from my Google overlords.
Ed: But if a
friend of mine develops esophageal cancer, and I go and start doing some
searches to learn more about their disease, and an insurance company decides
that I'm a poor risk because they think that historically 90% of people who
research esophageal cancer are doing so because a member of their family has
been diagnosed with this and so therefore we are going to deny them coverage. At
the moment we have laws in this country that make it impossible for them to
deny that kind of coverage, but who knows in the future? Let's say that I
happen to like to follow the horse races, and I apply for a job and the
employer finds this in my internet history which is available from Google, and
decide nope, your profile matches with people who are unreliable employees so
we are not going to hire you. The trouble is that it creates an impression of
you that is based on algorithms and averages, and not who you really are. I
don't like that.
Harry: Is this
something to worry about more today than it was with some other ISP 10 years
ago or with AOL 20 years ago? Google is smarter at this stuff.
Ed: Sure it
is. Look at how much storage is available today. The trouble is that 10 or 15
years ago nobody could afford to store data for more than a few days. Now the
web analytics companies that you have never heard of are collecting massive
amounts, inconceivable amounts, of information. I know that word doesn't mean
that. It's unfathomable amounts of information. They
are collecting it because they can, and at some point the technology for
analyzing it will catch up. When that happens it's too late. So I use a
service, for example, that when I go to Google it anonymizes my searches and
doesn't let them know who I am so that my history is blurred.
Leo: Google
Now is not very useful then. Google knows what I've searched for, so they give
me information on my Google Now that's useful.
Ed: And if
you want to opt into that that's awesome.
Leo: I have. I've
opted to it full time.
Ed: That's
great, that's great. I haven't, and I don't want to live in a world where I
don't have the...
Leo: I
understand. But you have the choice.
Ed: I have to
take great pains to avoid having my information go into Google's mighty
databases.
Jason: But the
point that Ed mentioned that was most important was that we don't even really
have the ability to analyze it really. Google can better than most, but there
will be data analysis getting better and better. It hasn't caught up, but it
will, and if you can store the information than you can analyze it. So that is
worth being worried about. That is worth being concerned about. It is stuff
that we should talk about and encourage public debate about those kinds of
things.
Leo: I just
feel like we might be falling into the pit of technopanic when we do that.
Ed: You are a
privileged white male Leo. We all are. We are all privileged white males. And
we are very lucky to be part of this non diverse panel that doesn't have to
worry about a lot of the economic consequences that affect people who aren't
privileged white males like us.
Jason: Well
said, well said.
Leo: Okay.
Ed: I didn't
mean to be too forward.
Leo: No, no, I
always ask you these questions because I want to be talked out of it and I have
yet to be talked out of it. I give you a chance every time. We will see. I feel
like there are probably lots of ways that people are gathering information
about us that we aren't aware of anyway. I get value out of Google, and it's
somewhat in Google's interest to not sell stuff to insurance companies because
they want to keep getting information. As soon as these imaginary harms,
because they are currently imaginary, happen, your concern is that it will be
too late to turn back the clock. My point is that if this does happen then
people are just going to say, oh crap, don't use Google anymore, and they are
out of business.
Ed: The
trouble is that it's not just Google. There are dozens of companies that you
have never heard of.
Leo: I agree,
and it's happening like crazy.
Ed: That are
collecting huge amounts of data, and they are buying databases, and they are
using them to make decisions that affect people's lives.
Leo: That I
agree with. But that's why I'm not worried about Google. Should we worry about
Google?
Ed: Well, so,
okay, so let's play science fiction scenarios here. Google is doing great right
now, they are making great money. Imagine that all of their moonshots fail, and
all of the sudden their advertising business starts to collapse in a couple of
years in the same way that Microsoft's Windows business collapsed.
Leo: But don't
you think TransUnion, I understand what you are saying, and it's the same thing
as the NSA gathering information. If the government turns against us all of
that information is useful. We are in deep trouble anyway I think. Look at
TransUnion and Equifax. These companies know more about you then anybody, and
they are using it against you all of the time. It's already happening. Whether
you use Google or not makes no difference.
Ed: So just
lie back and enjoy it?
Leo: Yeah,
because Google gives me some value at least. Value that
TransUnion and Equifax don't.
Ed: Well
again, the fact that you want to opt into that is awesome.
Leo: I feel
like you are kind of fatalistic and that you have given up. Maybe I've given
up.
Ed: No, no,
you are the one who is fatalistic.
Leo: That's
right, I've given up.
Ed: You are
the one who is saying, oh, there is nothing that we can do for them collecting
this data, so we might as well take advantage of the wonderful ads and...
Leo: I wish
the credit reporting agencies didn't exist, but they do. What am I supposed to
do about that? Not use a credit card? Get off of the grid?
Harry: Ed, why
don't you use DuckDuckGo or something like that?
Leo: I'm sure
that he does.
Harry: Try that
rather than Google.
Ed: DuckDuckGo
really has inferior information sources. That's the problem.
Leo: See, then
I have problems with this, because then there is an ethical issue. It's like
using an ad blocker. It’s an ethical issue, because you are saying that you
like Google better but you are not willing to pay for it with your data. Right? That's the cost of Google.
Ed: No, I use
Bing for some things, I use Google for other things, but I also try to take
advantage of perfectly legal techniques that allow information not to leave my
computer and go on to the internet.
Leo: Yeah, but
that is the cost of using the better search service called Google.
Ed: No.
Leo: Isn't it?
Ed: No, no,
no. We could get lost in this. I will pick on my own site right now.
Leo: You are a
freeloader Ed.
Harry: If 100%
of the people were like Ed it wouldn't work.
Ed: Go to
zdnet.com. That's the argument that the advertising companies make is that the
internet won't work if you don't allow us to collect every single bit of
information that is out there. What I am saying is disclose, give us choices,
give us transparency on the amount of information that is out there, and stop
indiscriminately collecting things and storing it.
Harry: I don't
think that Ed has a problem because people were all worked up about ad blockers
destroying the web and it never happened because even though a fairly large number of people use them they are still a small minority. The
business model still works if a small minority of people
aren't seeing the ads.
Leo: It's
unethical. To me it is unethical. You are saying I want to use your service for
free, and what you are asking me is for ad impressions, and I'm not going to
give them to you.
Harry: If Google
really wanted to do that they could make Ed agree not to do that, and as far as
I know Google doesn't do that.
Leo: Yeah,
because they don't care. But it still doesn't mean that it's not ethical. That
it's not unethical.
Ed: Most of
the reasons that people use ad blockers today have nothing to do with privacy
and everything to do with do with the god awful experience that comes with
having too many ads.
Leo: By the
way, Google pulled Adblock Plus from the Play Store
for that very reason. Apparently they don't like people blocking ads. Maybe
they don't like it really.
Harry: They are
not crazy about it, but it is not destroying them.
Leo: I think
that there is this impression that this should all be free, but hey, it's
expensive to be Google. It ain't cheap.
Ed: Google is
getting lots of information from me. What I don't do is stay
signed into Google services and allow every single website that has
Google analytics or Google adsence on it to
collection information about me that I didn't enter into an agreement with them
to give them.
Leo: Right.
Ed: I don't
see anything ethically problematic with that. When I go to Google I'm signed
in, they know who I am, you know? If I go and check Gmail, if I go to YouTube
and post a comment, it's done with my real name.
Leo: You would
prefer not, though, right?
Ed: Oh no,
no, no, no, it's not like that at all. It's the 27 different tracking services
on a single web page that are then taking information about me and trying to
build a profile about me that is being stored in a million different places. This
isn't tin foil hat stuff, this is what is happening
now.
Leo: I would
point out that all 4 of us work in ad supported media. That's how we...
Ed: I allow
ads on the pages there. It's tracking Leo. It's tracking, and collection, and storage of data. It's not advertising. I'm not
blocking ads.
Leo: Well I am
proud to say that we do not track our viewers in any way.
Ed: See? And
guess what?
Leo: It works.
Our ads work anyway.
Ed: Right. You
see? It's not about ads, it's about tracking.
Leo: Right. Yeah,
okay, I will grant you that. Although all of the advertisers
in all of your pages do track. Mine don't. You can't tell me that ZDNet
does not have trackers on your page.
Ed: They have
more trackers than most. ZDNet and Tech Republic have more trackers than most
websites do. I don't like it and there are products that I recommend for people
to limit the amount of tracking that is out there. If I ran the network I would
run it differently, but I don't. I'm a contributor.
Leo: We are
lucky because we don't need to track and I don't want to track. Yeah, it's an
interesting point.
Jason: You don't
need to. Your ads actually do work. I was thinking the other day of all of the
stuff that I have gotten introduced to from TWiT.
Leo: Yeah,
they are very effective.
Jason: The last
time I was on, I almost said this the last time I was on, so I'm glad that you
brought it up. I remember Squarespace I got introduced to, Audible I got
reintroduced to, I remember Ford ran for a while like the same year that I
ended up buying a Ford car, it was like Ford was advertising for you guys.
Leo: One thing
that we do do, and one of the reasons that it's
coming up is because I have been in this debate with some people this week
because we are doing our annual survey. The only thing that we do is that we do
a survey every year. It's completely opt in, and we invite you to do it at
twit.tv/survey, where we try to get a better idea of who our audience is, what
your interests are, and what shows you listen to. None of that information goes, the only information that goes to advertisers is
percentages. We don't even keep track of who you are or anything like that. But
even if we did that doesn't go to advertisers. What goes to advertisers is you
know, whatever, 78% of TWiT listeners are males with
an income of $150,000 or higher. That is the only kind of information that goes
to them. They want to know that information because they want us to get some
idea of who they are advertising to. Although frankly I think that the only
thing that really matters to any advertiser is how much money is it going to
cost and how much am I going to make? As long as the second number is bigger
than the first by a significant amount they are happy. But they kind of, you
know, I think that it's make work. They give you a chart that shows who you are
buying. Anyway, that's all that we do. In fact, if you would like to take the
survey we would appreciate it at twit.tv/survey. We do that once a year just so
we get an idea. Some of this actually goes back to programming. We pay
attention to what you are interested in and what you watch, whether we need to
do video, and audio, and stuff like that. If it's too long or too invasive you
don't need to do it, it's quite alright. That is not part of the deal. However,
the more you watch the happier we are. If you missed anything this week you
missed a lot. Let's take a look.
Video playing: Previously, on TWiT. Oh no, it's going
to blow. This is just like the Apple Watch event. All of that build up but very
little release. Tech News Today. Microsoft announced
yesterday that Windows 10 will be a free upgrade for current Windows users,
even those using pirated versions of Windows. Every other operating system is
free now. Microsoft need to make money somewhere else,
Skype subscriptions, ad sales. Tech News Tonight. It
looks like Mario the Plummer and Pokémon are finally being dragged kicking and
screaming into the smartphone world. Today Nintendo announced a joint venture
with Japanese company DNA to create new smartphone and tablet games using their
most popular characters. Security Now. What do you
think of laptop manufacturers, even Apple, using USB Type C for power? We have
talked about bad USB before. We are going to need a condom, a USB charging
condom. As soon as someone has I will tell everybody. You should do it. You
should call it the Spinright Power Condom. TWiT, put down
the keg and tap the TWiT.
Leo: Okay, it
was St. Patrick's Day, alright? You see, the power condom is a good idea if
anyone wants to use this on Kickstarter. The issue is these new Type C
connectors on both the Apple MacBook and on my new Pixel, they are not just
power, they are data. So bad USB, which is the firmware hack that can be used,
you know, with USB to infect a system and infect other systems could in theory
if you were at a coffee shop and wanted to borrow some power they could make it
not just a power cord, but a data cord, and infect you. So his condom is
brilliant, it's just a male to female Type C connector with just power wires
and no data wires. So you just carry that around with you and you can use
whatever charger you want because there is no data. I'm telling you;
Kickstarter you can make a million.
Jason: Kickstart that.
Leo: Kickstart that.
Jason: Somebody Kickstart that tomorrow.
Leo: That's a
good show idea. Kickstart That.
Jason: That's a
great show idea.
Leo: Kickstart That. We
tried a show called I'd Fund That. So you had a crowdsource thing and if we
liked it we would say I'd fund that, and then if you didn't like it we would
say go fund yourself. It didn't take off.
Jason: It was
like Shark Tank.
Leo: It was
kind of a crowdsourced Shark Tank. Except I'm not investing
any money. I'm not Mark Cuban. Our show today is brought to you by
Personal Capital. I love these guys. This was somebody I met, Ed Harris, he was one of the guys that started PayPal with Elon
Musk. Elon Musk started PayPal. He knows a lot about finance, a lot about
money, he was the CEO of Intuit, and he kind of watched what was going in the
world, and he said you know what the real problem is? People are investing,
they are saving for retirement, but the real issue is that they are not really
paying attention to where their money is and what their money is doing I think
because they are all on different sites with different passwords. I think that
there needs to be an easy kind of financial dashboard where you could see what
was happening with your money, track it, help you budget it, take a look at
your 401k, make sure it's properly invested, that you aren't paying too much in
mutual fund loads or investment commissions, things like that. This is so cool,
and it's actually free. It's actually 3 different businesses. So let's start
with the free and simple thing, which is merely go to personalcapital.com/twit,
and set it up so that you could now get this dashboard. You can get it on your
computer, your tablet, your mobile device, your phone, the IOS and Android, they have apps, and they have apps now for Android
Wear watches. So you've got all of this information. You know where you stand. It's
absolutely free. It's really useful. You can make smarter financial decisions. You
can balance your portfolio, things like that. Now, this is the second part of
it, and they offer this as a freebie to you, if you are tracking accounts that
add up to over $100,000 assets or more, they give you free 30 minute review
with one of their financial advisors. These are certified financial planners, they are not working on commission. In fact, this
is totally free. You can discuss your financial goals, your risk tolerance,
time horizon. For most people that 30 minute checkup gives you the basis, the
foundation to make sure that you are planning for your retirement properly and
your investments are optimized. Take control of your financial future; Personal
Capital gives you total clarity and transparency so that you can make better
investment decisions right away. And if you put $100,000 or more in assets in
your dashboard, and by the way that includes all of the assets, your house,
your car, your savings, you will get that free 30 minute portfolio
consultation. You can also invest through Personal Capital,
that is the third part of the business. We will talk about that another
time. Just set up your free account right now, personalcapital.com/twit. Take advantage of that free 30 minute phone call, or not. Use
the dashboard, it's great; personalcapital.com/twit. They
are now tracking $120 billion in personal finances. That's pretty amazing. Pretty incredible.
Leo: We are
talking TWiT with Jason Hiner of Tech Republic. Great to have you Jason!
Jason: It's
always a pleasure.
Leo: In
beautiful Louisville.
Jason: Hey, you
got me. You remembered.
Leo: I think
that I see the giant Louisville Slugger bat back there. Is that what that is? No.
Jason: I wish
that it was.
Leo: That's
the best thing, the Louisville Sluggers are in
Louisville. Are you getting ready for the Derby?
Jason: Yes,
Derby is coming up, a little over a month away, first weekend in May.
Leo: Awesome.
Jason: Oh yeah.
Leo: Do you do
that? Do you get to put on a funny hat and get your fascinator out?
Jason: You have
got to be a high roller to get to the Derby, so no. But TechRepublic,
true story, TechRepublic, during the .com boom when money
was cheap, TechRepublic had a booth, a suite on
millionaires row, a huge amazing suite on millionaires row for the Derby. Of
course, it was dc money, so it was good times. But yeah, now I watch it on TV
like most of the rest of us.
Leo: While drinking
a Pabst Blue Ribbon. A Miller High Life with your shoes off. So that's good. Life
is good. Tell us about the book really quick.
Jason: Follow
the Geeks is the book that I am working on with Lindsay Gildman.
We are co-authoring this book that is focusing on digital entrepreneurs, on people who have had to figure out how make it on their own. The thesis is
that the future of work is a lot more entrepreneurial, so we are finding people
who have not follow a traditional career path, and go out and interesting
things. So we are releasing them on the internet as we finish the chapters too.
The book itself will be published in the second half of the year, the whole
thing. But as we finish the chapters we are releasing them on the internet for
free for a limited time, you know, one at a time. So chapter 1 was Baraton DeThure, chapter 2 was
Lisa Betney, and chapter 3, just released on Friday,
is Gina Trapani.
Leo: Yay.
Jason: We've
already gotten so much wonderful feedback.
Leo: She's
great.
Jason: I love
Gina, and she's such a great story. She's so self-effacing and doesn't brag
about herself and her own story. I was really glad that we were able to tell
her story and get it out there for people to see all of the great stuff that
she has done. So that one is available for free and will be available for free
until 4 is released sometime next month.
Leo: That's so
great. You did an IndiGoGo for this initially. How
did that work out for you?
Jason: Yes, it
was good. What we did was we did that because we are self-publishing. The IndoGoGo was about raising money quickly. Typically when
you do a book you get an advance, and that advance pays for your time, it pays
for different things, to pay for your research costs to go and be able to do
the book. So we did the IndiGoGo to cover the
research cost, but also to cover the cost of doing the initial print run for
the book and the cost of someone to do an audio book. We are going to release
this in 4 forms, paperback, hard back, audio book, and eBook. So you have to
pay someone to do the layout of the book and that kind of thing. We raised
enough to cover the basic costs of doing the book so that we can self-publish
and sell directly to your readers. We will sell through Amazon and other
outlets, but we have opened preorders. You can preorder the book in all 4 of
these formats on our site followthegeeks.com. One of the things that we are
doing as we release these chapters, like for Gina's is we are asking people to
give their feedback on what is most interesting in her story, what they think
the impact she had, the most important impact she had, the most important
insights other people can learn about navigating the digital world of the
future and the future of work from her story. We are going to take the best
insights and we are going to publish those at the end of each chapter in the
final version.
Leo: Oh,
that's neat. So everybody who watches TWiT knows Gina
very well and it's very funny to read her story, which I did not know. As has
been the case with all 3 of these chapters, I know all 3 of them and I learned
a lot about all 3 of them. It's great. The book is chapter by chapter, but you
have got to read it when the chapter comes out because it's not going to be out
for long. Followthegeeks.com, chapter 3 is all about Gina Trapani.
Jason: Yes, also
@followthegeeks on Twitter.
Leo: I will be
buying this book the minute it comes out. I can't wait. Thank
you Jason. Also here is the technologizer Harry McCracken. You enjoying Fast Company?
Harry: I'm
having a great time. It's a really cool place to be.
Leo: I really
like Fast Company. It used to be a print magazine, right?
Harry: It still
is. I just finished our first story for our next issue.
Leo: They are
still printing?
Harry: We have a
magazine is doing well and newsstands sales are up.
Leo: Oh good.
Harry: It's kind
of weird to be working for a print publication that is doing well in 2015.
Leo: Is this
Enterprise focused?
Harry: We put
together a really good product. There are magazines out there where their
reaction to it being challenging to publish a magazine is to do it as cheaply
as possible. We do a really high quality magazine that people care about. A lot
of the time I go out, and I meet people, and they say that they subscribe to
one magazine and that magazine is Fast Company. And we have a great website
which has way more content than you could ever put in print.
Leo: Is that
the Tim Stevens? Or is that a different Tim Stevens?
Harry: On our
website?
Leo: Yeah, is
he writing for you guys?
Harry: If he is
that's news to me. I think that it would be really cool.
Leo: Yeah,
nice, fastcompany.com.
Ed: Tim
Stevens still works for CNet.
Leo: That's
what I thought. So it must be another. I guess it must be like a name that
could...
Harry: I would
happily steal Tim Stevens.
Leo: I know,
don't we love a Tim Stevens? And from ziffdavis.net, ZDNet,
zdnet.com, zdcom.net. What is it?
Ed: It's not
Ziff Davis. It's zdnet.com.
Leo: It's not
Ziff Davis, and it's net.com, not com.net.
Ed: We go
through this bit. ZDNet is not Ziff Davis and vice versa. It was this grand
fracturing of the universe.
Leo: I was
there for it. I remember it well.
Ed: Back at
the turn of the century. You were there.
Leo: And
former Editor in Chief of Windows magazine, right?
Ed: Leo.
Leo: I'm
sorry, PC use?
Harry: PCC.
Leo: PCC, PC
Computing, I know it was one of them. You know, nobody cares anymore. It's all
just a stack of some paper in a library.
Ed: It really
is, although I have to say, I just signed up for a 3 year subscription to Fast
Company based on Harry joining them.
Leo: That's
good news.
Ed: There
Harry, tell the circulation department.
Harry: We saw
the uptick when you subscribed.
Leo: Every
subscriber counts.
Ed: There was
a blip there. No, ZDNet, actually we are a sister site of Jason's TechRepublic.
Leo: Right.
Jason: Yes.
Ed: Same
management under CBS Interactive. A very good company to work
for. I really enjoy the people that I work with, and the content that we
do is diverse and interesting, and they give me a lot of freedom to write a lot
of stuff that makes me happy. So I like it.
Leo: Facebook's
F8 Conference is coming up this week. That's the big developer conference. Do
we have any prognosis or any predictions as to what might be happening? It's an
interesting company to watch because they are very forward thinking. Mark
Zuckerberg seems to be very smart. They seem to be pushing the envelope in a
lot of ways.
Harry: They have
2 keynotes, and the second keynote looks like it’s all
Oculus. If we are lucky it will be some of the details of the consumer launch
of Oculus that we still don't know.
Leo: I have
seen the future of VR, and it's pornography. I'm not
kidding you at this point. I know, everybody snicker
away. I have been to the VR store. We always say that technologies like VHS,
DVD, and the web get pushed forward...
Harry: Chatrooms.
Leo: ...chatrooms,
by adult entertainment. I have to say that I was a little skeptical on this
whole VR thing. The Oculus Rift makes me a little queasy, and it was because I
was playing video games, right? But somebody showed me, and I'm not going to
name names, but somebody said Leo, look at this. I was actually using the
Galaxy Gear VR, but it's Oculus technology, similar
technology. There is a site, there is probably more
than one at this point, that makes VR movies, adult movies. It's, well, it's
like being there. The minute I saw it I realized oh my god, nobody knows about
this yet, but when this happens forget Call of Duty, I've got Call of Booty! Have
any of you tried this stuff? No, you would never admit it. Go ahead, ask me all of the questions that you've got. Go ahead, I know that you are thinking about this.
Harry: That
probably will not be the big news at F8.
Leo: Well, but
you have got to think that they are aware of this and that they are thinking a
little bit. It's interesting because in the HD DVD vs Blu-ray wars there was a
little blip there because HD DVD prevented adult entertainment. Who survived
that war?
Harry: Way back
when I think that AOL knew about a lot of the stuff that people were doing on
AOL. While they did not promote it, they also did not prevent it.
Leo: That's
the key. Turn a blind eye. I have to say, I don't know what to say. I'm not
going to spend a lot of time in a VR helmet. I'm telling you that right now. But
until you have experienced it it's hard to imagine how realistic it is. Now I
suppose the same would be true of other things, but I can't think of, like you
don't really want to be emmersed in a Superman movie,
you don't want it to be a first person experience, I guess flying or something,
but it's a limited thing. There is one form of entertainment that naturally
lends itself to this, and that's porno. Alright, I'm sorry that I brought it
up, but I'm telling you, you heard it here first. So that won't be part of the
Facebook announcement?
Harry: Most
likely not.
Leo: What are
they going to talk about, gaming?
Harry: There is
platform stuff. It's a developer conference, so presumably it will be about
apps. They still have not talked about the pricing or the exact release date. Then
the first day of F8 is general Facebook news. The big thing that they are
talking about is Messenger starting to be a platform.
Leo: What does
that mean, turn Messenger into a platform? John Constein wrote about this on TechCrunch.
Jason: Payments.
Leo: But we
already have Venmo and other systems for doing that,
right? Is this going to be different than doing that? Can't you do payments in
WhatsApp, or is that not yet out?
Jason: Not that
I'm aware of.
Leo: No, they
were going to do that, but maybe they haven't done it yet. Alright, payments,
WeChat does it, LINE does it, but those are very Asia specific. So payments
will be one, but you know, it's so funny, that's the other side of the coin. I
gave high praise to Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook's intelligence, and you've
seen them launch apps that have sunk without a trace time and time again. Poke.
What was it, there were like 3 apps that just went nowhere. Recently. I can't even remember the name anymore. What's another Facebook app?
Jason: Home, Home was one of them.
Leo: That was a flop.
Jason: Wasn't there a Facebook Camera as well?
Leo: They keep doing this stuff and it just doesn't grab. You can do
whatever you want.
Harry: They have Paper, which I love. Paper is great. It's not setting
the world on fire, but it's a really good app.
Leo: Nobody uses it.
Ed: Hey guys.
Leo: What?
Ed: I've got to go. My bus is here.
Leo: Oh, Ed, alright, his ride is waiting for him. This has gone on way
too long. Thank you Ed.
Ed: It's been a pleasure.
Leo: Okay, Larry Page's helicopter is waiting for you. His black
helicopter is right out there. Just watch out.
Ed: Take care. I will Uber my way.
Leo: Ed Bott, zdnet.com; he is the greatest. Come
back.
Harry: And goodbye.
Leo: And goodbye. What do you think that he meant when he said his ride
was waiting?
Harry: Bus. One of his dogs probably.
Jason: Yeah, probably a dog.
Leo: You guys know Ed better than I do. Have you been looking at his
Google feed? Facebook has got a challenge, doesn't it? It's rapidly becoming
your parent's social network.
Harry: You mentioned LINE. LINE is making a fortune from third parties,
and content, and using messaging as a platform for all kinds of entertainment. Maybe
Facebook is watching that and wants to do something comparable.
Leo: Line made money in Stickers, as all of the Asian messaging apps
did. I actually set up Line and played with it. It's kind of fun, they've got a
bear, they've got characters.
Harry: They've got Brown and Coney.
Leo: Yeah, a bunny and a bear. Now they have LINE
Pay.
Harry: They have a taxi service.
Leo: Oh, interesting, like an Uber style?
Harry: Over the last couple of months they have announce almost any
service that anyone does. LINE has announced that they are going to do a
virtual butler, they are going to be delivering
meals...
Leo: But they live in a different world because they live in a world
where the phone is much more central still than it is here, right? In Asia I
feel like the phone is a much more primary computing platform. That will change
in the US and the rest of the world soon.
Harry: But we are not that far behind anymore.
Leo: Right, so Facebook wants to be part of that. Alright, so we will
watch. F8 is this week. What is the other keynote about?
Harry: I think that it is one keynote about general Facebook stuff and
one keynote about Oculus stuff.
Leo: Alright, we are going to run really quickly, Pwn2Own in Vancouver,
the big CanSecWest Security Conference, they do this
every year. I feel like it's a little sketch. Teams of security researchers
collect, all year, collect exploits. But they don't reveal them to the
companies or to the public because they want them to be a secret advantage at
Pwn2Own, there is a chance to win a lot of money. In fact, a South Korean
researcher on Thursday, Jung Hong Lee, his team, he was by himself but his
online name is Lokiheart, won $225,000 and a couple
of laptops by hacking Internet Explorer 11 and Google Chrome on Windows as well
as Safari on OSX. They use these exploits, usually chained exploits, or a
variety of different exploits chained together to own those systems. After the
event is over, the way that it works, you probably know, the contest sets up 64
bit versions of the top operating systems with the top browsers and then the
teams go at them. If you can hack it you win the laptop and some cash. His
attack on Google Chrome earned him the largest payout in the history of the
competition for a single exploit. He got $75,000 for finding a Chrome bug, an
extra $25,000 for a privilege escalation to system, another $10,000 for hacking
the browser's beta version. $110,000 for Chrome alone. Then another $65,000 for IE 11 and $50,00 for Safari. The
reason that I think that it is sketch is that these guys are coming up with
exploits but don't reveal them until after the event. So your incenting people to find exploits. I guess in the long run you get them. I just
worry that these exploits will become public knowledge before Pwn2Own. The final count for vulnerabilities, 5 flaws in Windows OS, 4 in IE
11, 3 each in Firefox, Adobe Reader and Flash Player, 2 in Safari, and 1 in
Chrome. So basically there is no safe platform. You can be hacked on any
platform.
Jason: Oh yeah.
Leo: Oh yeah. Pwn2Own. Speaking of hacking, greatfire.org, which is a
really interesting organization to do the best that they can to reveal the
Chinese, the Great Firewall of China, the Chinese government are keeping from
their people, they are under attack. The Chinese government named them as an
anti-Chinese website and now they are under a DDoS attack. They wrote on Thursday at time of writing 2.6 billion requests per hour
costing them $30,000 a day in extra fees from their internet service provider,
of course bringing the site down. All of their mirrors too.
Jason: Wow.
Leo: Yeah, that's bad. I don't know what the current state is. I could
log in. We've mentioned stories from them before. They are really good at
keeping track of what is going on in China. Let's see if they come up. Yeah,
they came up. But it's costing them a lot of money to stay up. This is the
blogpost, "We are under attack." I think that I've worn you guys out,
haven't I? Or are you just waiting to get off because oh my god, I want some VR
porn? Alright, well, I will tell you what, let's just
wrap this up in a second? Our show today is brought to you by Carbonite Online
Backup. You have got to be backing up to get your data, to protect it, to keep
it safe. Carbonite, automatic Cloud backup to give round the
clock protection. I want to emphasize that it's great not just only for
individual users, we talk about that all the time, I use it and I tell you
about it, but also for business owners. Carbonite, if you are a hands on business owner, makes data backup hands free and
hassle free. It backs up all of your digital assets to the Cloud automatically
and securely. More than a million and a half people trust Carbonite and 70,000
businesses for around the clock protection of their business files, their
databases, and their documents. You know what? It's affordable, it's easy, if you are using it at home you should try it at your
business. Cloud backup done right. These guys, I know them well, and they've
really got a commitment to finding a solution that works for you. Take a look
at carbonite.com, it's a great case, actually now
75,000 businesses, some great case studies. And by the way, if you use the
offer code TWIT when you sign up for the trial you get 2 free bonus months when
you decide to buy. So that's all that I ask, just use the offer code TWIT at
carbonite.com. If you are not using it maybe the time has come. People are
being Pwn2Owned all of time. The French government is blocking websites. You
know, you saw the Charlie Hebdo free speech marches,
people going linked arm in arm promoting free speech. Then then French
government decides to start blocking websites, not merely terrorist websites,
and this is always the problem isn't it, but in fact websites that just have
stuff that they don't like.
Jason: It's a slippery slope once you start.
Leo: It is.
Jason: That's why freedom of speech is guaranteed in the Constitution, right?
Leo: Yeah, there is no court review, no adversarial process, 5 websites
were blocked in France, and you get a scary government website saying that you
are being redirected to this official website. It said that your computer was
about to connect with a page that provokes terrorist acts or condones terrorism
publicly. Maybe that would be okay if it were true.
Harry: I don't think that it is true.
Leo: No, many of these, like islamic-news.info, were Islamic news
sites. In fact, the owner of that site says I was never contacted to remove
whatever material they were talking about, but I have never supported
terrorism, in fact we have been very clear that we don't support ISIS or Al
Qaeda at all. They are not fans I guess of Bashir al-Assad, who is. That is not
a reason to block it. He says, "I don't share ISIS propaganda or content,
in fact we have even denounced folks who have brought on attacks on
Europe." But they just shut them down. That's sad.
Jason: Not
good.
Leo: Not good. Read Harry's article on PlayStation View. I'm interested
in that. I'm going to have to try it. Do I need a PlayStation 4? Can I do it on
PlayStation 3?
Harry: Actually yeah, unless you have some pull with Sony.
Leo: Oh, it's a beta deal?
Harry: Well, you need to be in New York, or Philadelphia, or Chicago
right now. Another cool thing that they have is that they have local stations,
which is fine in New York City. They have lots of broadcast TV as well as cable
channels.
Leo: See, that's the key. I could get most of what I want over the
internet, it's the live stuff I can't, the broadcast stuff. We are too far north, we can't get San Francisco stations. So you can watch
The Voice on this?
Jason: You can't get over the air from San Francisco from there?
Leo: No, we are just a little bit too far. I guess if I had a big old
antenna on the hillside or something.
Jason: A big monster antenna up there?
Leo: No, I'm not going to do that. That's why god invented cable. God did
invent cable. I don't know if people really know that. Alright, I've bored you
enough. Go home and find something to watch on your VR helmet. Jason Hiner, don't forget the book followthegeeksbook.com. Great to have you Jason.
Jason: Thank you, always a pleasure. Great suspenders
by the way.
Leo: I know,
it's in honor of spring training, it's the opening day
for Major League Baseball, commemorative suspenders. I had to take off my
sweater when I started getting hot flashes. Apparently I'm menopausal.
Jason: Your color looks much better than it did.
Leo: I'm fine now.
Harry: You look great.
Leo: I was bright red before the show began. I think
that I was having a hot flash. It is that time. Harry
McCracken, nice to see you.
Harry: Nice to see you as well.
Leo: Give my love to Marie.
Harry: I will for sure.
Leo: Great to see you, I follow you on Instagram and Twitter, so always
see you are always busy busy doing stuff.
Harry: She said to apologize for not being here. She had to take our cat
to the vet.
Leo: Oh, I hope everything is okay.
Harry: He's fine.
Leo: Thank you for being here too. We have a great live audience if you
be here. Don't forget April 19th is a very special broadcast,
that is our 10th anniversary TWiT. I can't
believe that. First TWiT was April 17, 20, I don't
even think that you say 20 it was so long ago, 2005, 20-05.
All of the original cast members, and a few extras, will be here. John C. Devorak, he wasn't at the first show, Kevin Rose, Patrick
Norton, David Prager, Robert Harren, and we are still
waiting to hear from Roger Chang.
Jason
Howell: We still have got a maybe from Roger Chang.
Leo: Put the
pressure on the Jolly Roger. No, that's okay, if he
can't make it we've got a pretty good cast. If you would like
to be here tickets will be at a premium. A lot of people are bringing
their copies of Tech TV memorabilia that they would like to get autographed and
so forth, so do please email tickets@twit.tv because there will be a limited
supply on those. The fire marshal won't let us jam this place too tight. But
for any other show there are always empty seats; tickets@twit.tv,
tickets@twit.tv, please send us an email. If you can't be here in person you
can watch live. We are on at 3:00 pm Pacific, 6:00 pm Eastern Time, that would
be 2200 UTC, and we go for several hours after that. Sometime 5 hours,
sometimes 6, we just keep going. But do tune in live. If you can't you can
download on demand, audio or video, from twit.tv and from wherever podcasts
live; on the Cloud or one of our great apps. Make sure you subscribe, we want
you to get every great episode! Thanks for joining us, another episode of TWiT is in the can. Bye, bye.